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Dear Colleague,

Ahead of the NPT Review Conference, this series of commentaries from the ELN explores expert national viewpoints from the five nuclear-weapon states. This comes in advance of the release of two major ELN research papers on the P5 Process.

Lessons from the London P5 Conference
In February, the ELN and King's College London coordinated the civil society events at the London P5 Process meeting. Here the ELN''s Dr Maximilian Hoell and King''s College London''s Emily Enright argue that civil society engagement is key for success.

Swimming through a sea of troubles: Russia and the P5 Process
Moscow views a lack of tangible deliverables as a serious impediment to the effectiveness of the P5 process says Daria Selezneva, Research Associate at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy.

The P5 Process: The United States and the international security environment
Jamie Kwong, Marshall Scholar PhD student and Research Assistant at King's College London, argues that the US engagement in the process looks distinct from that of other members as it is inextricably linked to its perception of the global security environment.

A path paved with thorns: How does China perceive and advance the P5 Process?
Beijing has re-started the P5 process after a break in formal conferences in 2017-2018 and has led on the glossary and Bangkok Treaty workstreams finds Luo Xi, Research Fellow at the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association (CACDA).

The P5 Process: The United Kingdom's coordination in 2019-2020
During the UK's tenure as coordinator, London has advanced the doctrines discussion and transparency-building efforts in spite of stark disagreements says Sebastian Brixey-Williams, co-Director of BASIC.

The P5 Process: a French perspective
Emmanuelle Maitre, Research Fellow at the Fondation pour la Recherche Strat?gique, argues that France's priorities for the P5 process are moving forward the deliberations on the Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT) and strategic risk reduction.

Read the full series here.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear colleague,

Today, the ELN has issued a group statement on saving the Open Skies Treaty, signed by 16 former high ranking military and defence figures from across Europe.
 
The joint statement urges all parties to remain in the agreement and highlights the security benefits of the treaty. The timing of the statement coincides with the anniversary of President George H. W. Bush''s 1989 speech which revived the Open Skies proposal, originally conceived by President Eisenhower in 1955.
 
The Open Skies Treaty allows its members to gather information on each other's military forces and activities through aerial surveillance, helping to build trust and enhance mutual understanding between its 34 state party members. Today the treaty is at risk as the Trump administration is considering withdrawing due to concerns that Russia is not in full compliance.
 
Read the full statement here.
 
Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

PRESS RELEASE: Transatlantic Call to Ease Humanitarian Trade with Iran due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

NEW YORK/LONDON, April 6, 2020 - Today, a bipartisan group of two dozen American and European national security leaders issue a joint statement urging the US government to ease humanitarian trade with Iran in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. "As the world grapples with COVID-19 - the disease caused by the novel coronavirus - we must remember that an outbreak anywhere impacts people everywhere. In turn, reaching across borders to save lives is imperative for our own security and must override political differences among governments" the authors write.

Please join signatories Ambassador Thomas Pickering, former US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs and Ambassador to the United Nations, Russia, India, Israel, El Salvador, Nigeria, and Jordan, and Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland, former Norwegian Prime Minister and Director-General of the World Health Organization for a global press call with experts on the statement TODAY Monday 6 April at 11:00 EDT/16:00 BST. They will be joined by experts Richard Nephew and Esfandyar Batmanghelidj. To register, click here.

The full statement is available here and copied in full below.

PRESS CONTACTS:

• US: Iris Bieri, iris@fcsny.org +19372661574, and Katia Mead katia@fcsny.org +19176808724
• EUROPE: Sahil Shah, sahils@europeanleadershipnetwork.org +447452983625

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Transatlantic Call to Ease Humanitarian Trade with Iran due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

06 April 2020

Like many Americans and Europeans, Iranians are also facing one of their country's darkest times in living memory. As the world grapples with COVID-19 - the disease caused by the novel coronavirus -  we must remember that an outbreak anywhere impacts people everywhere. In turn, reaching across borders to save lives is imperative for our own security and must override political differences among governments. 

Iran's reported case fatality rate - which may greatly understate the true numbers - is one of the highest in the world. Though never intended to kill, US "maximum pressure" through sanctions on Iran are compromising the performance of the Iranian healthcare system as Iran's outbreak moves into its second month. Despite humanitarian exemptions provided under US and international law, these sanctions make the importation of medicine, medical equipment and raw materials needed to produce these goods domestically slower, more expensive, and complicated - when even possible - by deterring potential suppliers out of fear of overstepping sanctions' limits. 

Like every country - even one as large and wealthy as the United States - success in fighting the virus requires that Iran have flexible, reliable and affordable means of importing these crucial supplies through commercial channels. The Trump administration's sanctions on Iran are the most extensive coercive economic measures ever imposed on a country. A focused reduction in overall pressure would have a significant impact on the ability of Iran's healthcare system to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak, potentially saving the lives of hundreds of thousands of ordinary Iranians and, by helping to curb the virus' rapid spread across borders, the lives of its neighbors, Europeans, Americans and others. 

Given military escalation between the US and Iran earlier this year, the possibility of diplomatic engagement with Iran has already narrowed, and a lack of relief may shut down chances completely. Such relief would not change the overall posture of the Trump administration's policy towards Iran or sacrifice any meaningful leverage for future negotiations on Iran's nuclear, missile, or regional policies. However, a failure to provide relief could have significant and long-lasting consequences for the reputation of the United States and Europe among the Iranian people. This would starkly raise the political costs of engaging with either the US or Europe for any current or future Iranian decision-makers while simultaneously boosting the influence of Iran's non-Western partners. 

The United States has said that it has offered assistance to Iran but has not made the details or any potential conditions public. However, given the high level of tensions and mutual distrust between Tehran and Washington, it is unrealistic to expect that Iran would tie itself to US aid to tackle a national emergency or ask Washington for help. Offering aid with one hand while taking away much more through the pressure of crippling economic sanctions with the other is not a coherent posture. 

Iran has received timely and important aid from the E3/EU (France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the European Union), as well as Japan, China, Russia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and others. While this aid has played an important role in the early days of the crisis, Iran cannot depend on this limited assistance alone, especially as the pandemic becomes more severe in many of the donor countries. 

Just as the COVID-19 pandemic has upended every aspect of the global economy and of human lives and health, it has drastically changed the impact of a US policy designed for a different purpose and conditions. Just because Iran has managed the crisis badly, that does not make its humanitarian needs and our security ones any the less. Targeted sanctions relief would be both morally right and serve the health and security interests of the United States, Europe, and the rest of the world.  

Substantial measures that maximize benefits for Iran's public health system must garner broad political support and be straightforward for the United States and Europe to implement, particularly as they both face growing public health crises at home. Measures that the US government should pursue include the following: 

Immediate Measures

• Expand the scope of humanitarian exemptions under U.S. sanctions to directly include devices and equipment necessary to effectively combat COVID-19. This expanded scope should allow companies to make use of General License No. 8 (GL-8) when exporting these items. Many examples of medical devices and equipment, such as oxygen generators, full-face mask respirators and thermal imaging equipment, require a specific license from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) in order to be exported by US companies. Even when there is no US connection, these items are nonetheless not covered by the humanitarian exemption clarified under GL-8, meaning that the Central Bank of Iran cannot have a role in the facilitation of the export without exposing European and other banks to U.S. sanctions. This is a significant impediment to European exports of these items.
• Add staffing and other resources at OFAC to speed-up the licensing process to enable a greater number of manufacturers to supply the Iranian healthcare sector and to empower more non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to raise funds and provide relief services.
• Issue comfort letters to European and other non-US banks, as well as for as many entities in the value chain as possible - such as manufacturers, shippers, and insurers - that already are conducting enhanced due diligence, in order to reassure them that they will not run afoul of OFAC if they provide a function for humanitarian trade with Iran.
• Offer regular updates on the operationalization of the US-sponsored Swiss Humanitarian Trade Arrangement (SHTA) and relax its stringent reporting requirements, which are a significant disincentive to any Swiss companies that might consider making use of the SHTA.  
• Express support for humanitarian trade as facilitated through the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) as an alternative mechanism for Europe to conduct humanitarian trade with Iran.

Further Measures

• Make clear to countries that were granted waivers to continue purchases of Iranian oil and that as a result are now holding significant amounts of Iranian money in escrow that those funds can be used to pay for humanitarian exports to Iran. 
• Provide funding to the World Health Organization (WHO) to enable further deliveries of aid and technical assistance to Iran.
• Do not interfere if the International Monetary Fund (IMF) board votes in favor of providing Iran with requested emergency financing. A loan from the IMF would help Iran address its balance of payments crisis and pay for imported medical equipment. 

#########

Signed by members of the European Leadership Network and The Iran Project:

1. Secretary Madeleine Albright, former US Secretary of State and Ambassador to the United Nations
2. Ambassador Hans Blix, former Swedish Foreign Minister and Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency
3. Lord (Desmond) Browne of Ladyton, former UK Defense Secretary 
4. H.E. Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland, former Norwegian Prime Minister and Director-General of the World Health Organization 
5. Ambassador Nicholas Burns, former US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Ambassador to NATO and Greece, and Spokesperson for the US Department of State 
6. Ambassador William Burns, former US Deputy Secretary of State, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, and Ambassador to Russia and Jordan
7. H.E. Mr. Hikmet ?etin, former Turkish Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister
8. H.E. Mr. Willy Claes, former NATO Secretary General and Belgian Foreign Minister 
9. Secretary William Cohen, former US Senator and Secretary of Defense 
10. Senator John Danforth, former US Senator and Ambassador to the United Nations
11. H.E. Mr. Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, former NATO Secretary General and Dutch Foreign Minister
12. Secretary Chuck Hagel, former US Senator and Secretary of Defense 
13. Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, former German Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the United Kingdom and United States 
14. H.E. Mr. Jan Kavan, former President of the United Nations General Assembly and Czech Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister
15. H.E. Mr. Louis Michel, former European Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid and Belgian Foreign Minister
16. H.E. Ms. Federica Mogherini, former High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Vice President of the European Commission, and Italian Foreign Minister
17. Secretary Paul O''Neill, former US Secretary of the Treasury
18. Ambassador Thomas Pickering, former US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs and Ambassador to the United Nations, Russia, India, Israel, El Salvador, Nigeria, and Jordan
19. H.E. Mr. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former Prime Minister of Denmark and NATO Secretary General
20. Lord (George) Robertson of Port Ellen, former NATO Secretary General and UK Defense Secretary
21. Ambassador Thomas A. Shannon Jr, former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Counselor of the US Department of State, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs and Ambassador to Brazil
22. Ambassador Wendy Sherman, former US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs, and Counselor of the US Department of State
23. H.E. Mr. Hubert V?drine, former French Foreign Minister, Secretary General and Diplomatic Advisor to the French President, and Presidential Spokesperson
24. Ambassador Frank Wisner, former US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Under Secretary of State for International Security Affairs, and Ambassador to India, the Philippines, Egypt, and Zambia

This statement was organized in partnership by the European Leadership Network (ELN) and The Iran Project (TIP). The opinions articulated above represent the views of the signatories and do not necessarily reflect the position of either organization's wider membership. Enquiries about the statement may be directed to Sahil Shah at sahils@europeanleadershipnetwork.org.

Dear Colleague,

New policy brief: Yes, we can? Europe responds to the crisis of multilateral arms control

Read the policy brief here

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

As long as a nuclear-weapon-free world has not been achieved, the risk that nuclear weapons will ever be used remains. This week, expert commentaries from ELN network members and external experts, explore risk reduction and nuclear deterrence in light of COVID-19.

Nuclear risk reduction as an interim success for the NPT Review Conference?
Sico van der Meer, Research Fellow at Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Given the current polarisation on nuclear weapons, reducing the risk of nuclear weapons ever being deployed could be a feasible area to show progress at the upcoming NPT Review Conference.

Nuclear risks are laid bare by COVID-19
Wilfred Wan, Researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)
The state of nuclear normalcy is fragile. Changes in military operations in response to COVID-19 could have a bearing on the risk of nuclear weapon use.

The flawed logic of the French "nuclear warning"
Jean-Marie Collin, Nuclear Disarmament Expert, Associate Researcher at the GRIP, Spokesmen of ICAN France
Carrying out a "nuclear warning" means the failure of deterrence. The very real consequence of this is escalation to a nuclear exchange.

Macron's vision: a European role for the French nuclear deterrent
Carlo Trezza, ELN senior network member and Former Ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament
The future of Macron's initiative, on the possible role of French nuclear deterrence in the context of European security and defence, will depend on the long-term evolution of transatlantic relations.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

REGISTER HERE

The election of a new president in the United States presents the prospect of major changes in US foreign policies, especially toward Iran. Depending on the results of US elections, these changes cannot begin to be implemented until after Inauguration Day in January of the new year, while an urgent need exists for other players to bridge the gap.

None are better suited to this task than the US's closest allies in Europe which have already played a significant role in the negotiations that led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Britain, France and Germany - the E-3 - and the European Union have also worked tirelessly to keep the JCPOA alive in the face of the unilateral US withdrawal from the agreement in 2018, the imposition of draconian sanctions by the Trump administration and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

A new report by Ellie Geranmayeh, Barbara Slavin, and Sahil Shah presents a series of recommendations for the E-3 and the EU to preserve the JCPOA, promote regional peace and development and boost people-to-people contacts with Iran in concert with a potential new US administration. Taken together, these steps would amount to a renewed transatlantic diplomatic agenda through which the United States and European allies can stabilize the nuclear file and then build on the resulting diplomatic momentum to address other concerns with Iran.

The Atlantic Council's Future of Iran Initiative and the European Leadership Network invite you to a discussion of these recommendations and the prospects for diplomacy with Iran. 

Introduced by

Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President
Atlantic Council

Keynote remarks

Federica Mogherini
Former High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, European Union
Executive Board Member, European Leadership Network

A conversation with

Ellie Geranmayeh
Senior Policy Fellow, Deputy Head of Middle East and North Africa Program
European Council on Foreign Relations

Sahil Shah
Policy Fellow
European Leadership Network

Barbara Slavin
Director, Future of Iran Initiative
Atlantic Council

Moderated by

Borzou Daragahi
Nonresident Senior Fellow
Atlantic Council

REGISTER HERE

Dear Colleague,

Recommendations from an experts'' dialogue: De-escalating NATO-Russia military risks

• Re-establishing military-to-military dialogue
• Stabilizing measures in NATO-Russia contact zones in the High North and the Baltic and the Black Sea regions
• Codifying confidence-building measures in border areas

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

New report: Overcoming disunity: Reinvigorating the P5 Process a decade on

This new report from the ELN is the product of a ten-month-long effort to explore common ground among the five nuclear-weapon states (NWS) parties to the NPT. Over ten months, ELN researchers conducted interviews with more than 60 officials and experts from all five NWS and some non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS).

The report, by ELN Policy Fellow Dr Maximilian Hoell and ELN Research Director Andreas Persbo, offers practical recommendations for the P5 states to reduce nuclear risks, grouped into three time periods to offer a systematic menu of options for the P5:

• Steps that can be taken by the next NPT review conference (2020-2021).
• Over the following 'intersessional period' (2021-2022).
• Throughout the 'preparatory session' for the 2025-2026 RevCon.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

• Alexandra Bell, Senior Policy Director at the Center for Arms Control & Non-Proliferation. Previously, she served as a Senior Advisor in the Office of the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Before joining the Department of State in 2010, Alex worked on nuclear policy issues at the Ploughshares Fund and the Center for American Progress. She is also an alumna of the ELN''s Younger Generation Leaders Network (YGLN). 
• Elena Chernenko, Special Correspondent at the Kommersant daily newspaper in Moscow, where she focuses on issues of cybersecurity, non-proliferation and arms control and recently conducted interviews with the leading US, Russian, and Chinese nuclear negotiators. She is also a Member of Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy (SVOP) and the Council of the PIR-Center, as well as the ELN Contact Group on Russia-West Relations. 
• Ambassador Marjolijn van Deelen, European Union Special Envoy for Non-proliferation and Disarmament. Until recently, she headed the Non-proliferation, Disarmament and Nuclear Affairs Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands where her responsibilities included all WMD-related Dutch foreign policy. Last year, she was also appointed Dutch Ambassador for the Non-Proliferation Treaty. She is designated Vice-President of the next NPT Review Conference chairing the Main Committee on peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
• Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, Director of the International Organizations and Non-Proliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). Gaukhar is a renowned expert in international non-proliferation and disarmament organisations, regimes, and negotiations. She is currently based at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-proliferation (VCDNP). 

Dear Colleague,

Since nuclear weapons testing began on 16th July 1945, over 2,000 have taken place. Today is the United Nations International Day against Nuclear Tests (IDANT), designed to raise awareness of the devastating humanitarian, environmental and geostrategic impact of nuclear weapons testing. To mark the day, we explore current issues around the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), the treaty designed to end nuclear testing for good.

The International Day against Nuclear Tests: A reminder to achieve the entry-into-force of the CTBT
In light of recent reports that the Trump administration is considering the resumption of nuclear testing, the international community should redouble its commitment to the norm against testing. The only way to close the door on nuclear testing for good is to bring the CTBT into force, argues ELN Policy Fellow Maximilian Hoell.

ELN Policy Fellow Sahil Shah speaking at European Forum Alpbach on the CTBT
Today at 19:30 CEST, ELN Policy Fellow Sahil Shah will speak at the Alpbach conference on the role of the CTBT in promoting a more peaceful and secure world. He will join Algerian Foreign Minister Sabri Boukadoum, former President of Finland Tarja Halonen, Executive Secretary of the CTBT Organisation Lassina Zerbo, and others to officially commemorate the IDANT.

For more information and tickets, click here.

In case you missed it.
An assessment of obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban-Treaty (CTBT)
The CTBT was put under the spotlight in June when the US Government''s 2020 Compliance Report raised accusations about Russian and Chinese nuclear testing. Edward Ifft, of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, argues that the report forces into the open issues that have been simmering under the surface for a long time.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty is in danger: Here''s how to save it
In 2019, US allegations against Russia for violating the CTBT weakened the treaty and fueled speculation that the US might ''unsign'' the test ban. In this policy brief, ELN Policy Fellow Maximilian Hoell offers recommendations to strengthen the CTBT.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

Tomorrow marks the two year anniversary of the United States announcing it would reimpose sanctions on Iran, violating the landmark Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the "Iran nuclear deal".

This week, ELN commentaries explore recent developments in Iran. Staff and external experts discuss the launch of Iran''s first military satellite, recent issues with humanitarian trade in light of COVID-19 and the European response to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

As Iran faces virus, Trump admin fails to use Swiss channel to ease medical exports
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, Founder and Publisher of Bourse & Bazaar and Sahil Shah, ELN Policy Fellow
The Trump administration claims that the Swiss Humanitarian Trade Arrangement (SHTA) with Iran is fully functional, but not a single transaction has been made since a pilot sale of medicine three months ago.

Have Iran's space ambitions taken a worrisome new turn?
Fabian Hinz, Research Associate at The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS)
On 22 April Iran successfully launched its first military satellite, unveiling its parallel IRGC-run space program for the first time. Is Iran embarking on a hedging strategy aimed at acquiring long-range ballistic missile technology?

What the European maritime initiative in the Strait of Hormuz tells us about Brussel's security ambitions
Dr Eva Pejsova, Associate Researcher at the French Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS)
Ever since the outbreak of the current crisis in the Persian Gulf in June 2019, starting with a series of attacks on commercial shipping and culminating in the detention of the British oil tanker Stena Impero by Iran in July, Europe has been under pressure to take a stance.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

New policy brief: Belarus beyond 2020: Implications for Russia and the West

This Sunday, Belarus goes to the polls in one of the most turbulent election cycle in decades.

While protests have captured media imagination, little attention has been paid to what comes next or to the potentially serious consequences for European security. The elections take place in the context of worsening tension between NATO and Russia. There is a growing risk that Belarus will become the site of a new crisis in Russia-West relations.

In this new policy brief, ELN Policy Fellow Ben Challis highlights a set of post-election scenarios for policymakers and sets out a list of recommendations to help Russia and the West avoid a damaging competition for influence in Belarus.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

Today, Americans will go to the polls to vote in one of the most important elections in US history. The outcome will have a profound impact on the future of European and global security. Among the many issues that will be directly affected are the prospects for the Euro-Atlantic alliance, the future of arms control, Russia-West relations and instability in the post-Soviet space.
 
But while European leaders working on these issues await the election result, foreign policy is not the major issue in the US's own election debate. If Biden wins, Europeans will anticipate the US to recommit to values of multilateralism and internationalism. But given that the next president will need to prioritise tackling a pandemic and recession, against a backdrop of domestic polarisation, foreign policy issues will be vying for limited high-level bandwidth.

Here we highlight just some of the issues at stake, and will follow up with commentary and analysis on the implications of the election results once they are known.
 
Instability in the post-Soviet space
 
Over the last few months, the post-Soviet region has been rocked by a wave of instability. In addition to an outbreak of war in Nagorno-Karabakh, the region has also seen the rise of pro-democracy movements in Belarus and Kyrgyzstan, and with elections taking place in Georgia, Moldova and Kazakhstan, political risks are rising.
 
In a new commentary for the ELN, Nikita Grayzin and Daniel Shapiro argue that under Trump the US has had a noticeably muted reaction to these developments, but a Biden presidency could see a return to a more active US foreign policy and pro-democracy position in the region with implications for Russia-West relations. Yet this could present trade-offs with other strategic goals, including arms control negotiations.
 
More on this:

• Last month, ELN Research Director Andreas Persbo argued that now is the time to firm up international presence in Nagorno-Karabakh to avoid it spiralling into the most significant and brutal conflict in wider Europe since the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia.
• In an ELN commentary, Katia Glod, a Fellow at Center for European Policy Analysis, called on the EU, the UK and the US to come out in support of fundamental freedoms and human rights in Belarus to help avoid European security being compromised by another protracted conflict on the EU's frontier.

 
Arms control
 
Two key deadlines for international arms control agreements are due in the coming months. Having withdrawn from the JCPOA in 2018 and the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty in 2019, President Trump gave notice earlier this year that the US would withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty on November 22.
 
Meanwhile, the New START treaty - the last remaining nuclear non-proliferation agreement - is also under threat, set to expire in less than three months if it's not extended.
 
Last month, in a letter organised by the ELN, over 75 European parliamentarians from more than 20 European capitals, the European Parliament, and NATO Parliamentary Assembly wrote to their US counterparts to urge them to support for a New START extension - and to emphasise that this is at least one area where a bipartisan consensus can be forged to maintain the stability that the treaty provides, while writing the next chapter of arms control.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

The international community is grappling with a space environment that is changing dramatically, and the current system of international space law is struggling to keep up. This week the ELN brings you a recent series of articles on space policy from experts in the field.

Re-evaluating space norms in a changing orbital environment
The space environment is becoming increasingly populated by non-state actors who are pursuing a range of different goals. BASIC's Marina Favaro argues that new norms of governance must be implemented by the international community to keep space safe, secure, and sustainable.

Rendezvous Proximity Operations: Not operating in isolation
With the increase in space activity, Rendezvous Proximity Operations (RPO) are needed to maintain a sustainable space environment. VERTIC's Anuradha Damale says that technical and political solutions need to be available to mitigate the misuse of RPO technology.

In case you missed it.
Have Iran's space ambitions taken a worrisome new turn?
In April Iran successfully launched its first military satellite using the new Qased Space Launch Vehicle (SLV), unveiling its IRGC-run space program for the first time. Fabian Hinz asks whether Iran is embarking on a hedging strategy aimed at acquiring long-range ballistic missile technology.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

ELN Group Statement: Appeal for P5 states to reduce nuclear weapons risks 

Supported by 140 security experts from 30 countries, the ELN is calling upon the five recognised nuclear-weapon states - China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States (the P5) - to launch a sustained, open-ended and regular panel on strategic risk reduction.  

Over the past decade, relations among the major powers have deteriorated, while strategic risks and mistrust among nuclear powers have increased. As a result, nuclear-weapon states have hardened their nuclear postures in response to threat perception instead of cutting arsenals. A P5 panel on strategic risk reduction should resolve misunderstandings about nuclear doctrines, and agree on concrete measures, in order to reduce the risk of unintended use of nuclear weapons.

Read the statement in full here.

More on this:

• Alexander Kmentt presented the risk reduction perspective of TPNW supporters, arguing that risk reduction measures must address the risks stemming from the possession of nuclear weapons and the practice of nuclear deterrence per se.
   
• Oliver Meier and ELN Policy Fellow Maximilian Hoell recommended the P5 to respond to NATO non-nuclear-weapon states interest in a structured and transparent conversation on concrete measures to lower the risk of nuclear use.
   
• ELN Director Adam Thomson, Goran Svilanovic and Ahmet ?z?mc? called for the establishment of a regular, open-ended and sustained dialogue process between the P5 as a critical step to reinvigorate the NPT.

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

This week, Iran recorded its highest number of deaths from COVID-19 within a 24-hour period, pointing to a resurgence of the virus while its healthcare system tries to cope under US "maximum pressure". Dr. Roxane Farmanfarmaian of the University of Cambridge wrote her reflections on the current situation in a new commentary for the ELN, entitled "Iran, sanctions, and the COVID-19 pandemic".

In April, members of the ELN and The Iran Project released a statement on the humanitarian situation in Iran. Upon release, the Guardian wrote that the statement was "the most broad-based effort to engage the White House yet, proposing very specific, but effective steps that do not require a complete reversal of US policy towards Iran". Given the resurgence of the virus, the ELN hopes that these recommendations to ease humanitarian trade will be taken into consideration, particularly through the facilitation of financial channels. The statement is now also available in Italian, French, Persian, and Arabic.

The ELN also hosted a global press call on the Iranian access issues that were discussed at the June IAEA Board of Governors meetings. A recording and transcript are publicly available. ELN Policy Fellow Sahil Shah published his thoughts ahead of those meetings in a commentary, entitled "The doves and hawks are here to stay: Time for the E3 to show bold leadership on Iran", and released a range of historical data on the IAEA''s inspection effort in Iran. 

The ELN continues to monitor regional security developments, especially with tensions on the rise in recent months. Nicole Grajewski of the University of Oxford wrote on the promise and perils of sustained and inclusive dialogue in a recent commentary for the ELN, entitled "Iran's Hormuz Peace Endeavor and the future of Persian Gulf security".

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

On 9th August, Alexander Lukashenko claimed a sixth term as president of Belarus in a widely disputed election. The mass protests that followed have led to harsh police crackdowns and generated new tensions between the West and Russia, who find themselves at odds over the correct response to the crisis. This week, we bring you the latest analysis on the ongoing crisis in Belarus from ELN staff and external experts.

Why the West should help civil society in Belarus
Katia Glod, Non-Resident Fellow at The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), argues that the EU, the UK and the US should come out in support of fundamental freedoms and human rights in Belarus. Doing so would mean not only staying true to their own values, but could help avoid European security being compromised by another protracted conflict on the EU's frontier.

Belarus beyond 2020: Implications for Russia and the West
In early August, ELN Policy Fellow Ben Challis warned that a political crisis in Belarus would be one of the most likely triggers of a potential NATO-Russia confrontation. This policy brief calls on Russia and the West to avoid a damaging competition for influence in Belarus.

East-West Coffee Shop Podcast: Belarus
In the first episode of the YGLN's East-West Coffee Shop podcast, the ELN's Ben Challis sits down to discuss the developing situation in Belarus with YGLN member and Director of the Minsk Dialogue Council Yauheni Preiherman and Katia Glod, a Non-Resident Fellow at The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

New policy brief: COVID-19 and the future of security and defence

In this policy brief, ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El argues that the current silos of security and defence are no longer fit for purpose. In a post -COVID world, greater convergence between security and defence is needed for a more efficient and effective way to deal with threats and risks to both people and states.

In particular, the briefing recommends:

• Creating a mechanism for pooling relevant material from the disparate domains of security and defence in a joint risk assessment operation.
• At European and transatlantic level, creating a properly resourced joint operation between NATO and the EU.

Read the policy brief

More on COVID-19 and security...

The coronavirus pandemic hits NATO: Five potential implications
Stefanie Babst, ELN Senior Associate Fellow
The strategic ramifications of COVID-19 will be multi-faceted and far-reaching. What implications could this have for NATO?

"I'm not dead yet!": What the COVID-19 prompted postponement could mean for the 10th NPT Review Conference
Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, Director of the International Organizations and Nonproliferation Program at CNS
The delay of the NPT Review Conference and the disruption of the usual preparatory processes could offer an opportunity and space for a new vision for the conference and review process to emerge.

COVID-19 shows that the Biological Weapons Convention must be strengthened
Carlo Trezza, ELN Senior Network member and former Ambassador to the Conference on Disarmement
The pillar of international biological arms control, the Biological Weapons Convention, is, at present, inadequate for handling a biological weapons crisis. How can the regime be strengthened?

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

This month marks the 10th anniversary of the New START treaty. The nuclear arms reduction agreement between the US and Russia, originally signed in 2010, is due to expire in February 2021 unless it is extended by Presidents Trump and Putin. This week's reading brings together recent ELN commentaries on New START and other US-Russian arms control issues.

Will New START get a new lease of life? 
NTI''s Vice President of the Global Nuclear Policy Program Lynn Rusten argues that it would be reckless to forego the benefits of New START when the alternative to extension is "no limits, no verification, and no transparency."
 
US-Russia relations in 2020: The end of effective arms control?
Where does the New START treaty stand in 2020 and what could happen if it's left to expire? Gabriella Gricius, Senior Research Associate for the Public International Law and Policy Group, asks.

Dealing with the INF crisis
After the collapse of the INF Treaty, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution Edward Ifft, explores what potential solutions exist to avoid an unconstrained arms race in intermediate-range missiles.

A gloomy outlook for nuclear arms control
As most of the treaties that formed the core of the arms control system are either gone or being undermined, Russia and the US no longer want to lead by example by carrying the bilateral burden of disarmament argues Dmitry Polikanov, Chairman of the Trialogue Club and member of the Expert Council of the Russian Government.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

ELN Group Statement: Appeal for the US government to extend New START

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

New policy brief: What does cyber arms control look like? Four principles for managing cyber risk

The question of how we control, manage, and mitigate the challenges, threats, and dangers posed by "cyber" is perhaps one of the most talked-about security problems of our time.

In this policy brief, Dr Andrew Futter, Associate Professor of International Politics at the University of Leicester and alumni member of the Younger Generation Leadership Network (YGLN), sets out a number of key criteria that we need to consider in future "cyber arms control":

1. It must be based on agreed definitions of the problem: what do we seek to "control" and what do we mean by "cyber"?
2. It probably will not look like agreements from the nuclear realm and it will not cover everything we label as "cyber".
3. It will involve a mixture of formal, multilateral agreements and informal, unilateral mechanisms of control.
4. It is likely to be targeted and specific, rather than broad and general agreements, and will require analysts, scholars and policymakers to think 'outside of the box'.

Read the policy brief

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

New policy brief: Saving the Open Skies Treaty: Challenges and possible scenarios after the U.S. withdrawal

For nearly two decades, the Open Skies Treaty has allowed its members to conduct observation flights over each other's air space, designed to increase transparency, build trust, and enhance mutual understanding between Russia and the West.The US withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty caused tension with European allies earlier this summer. In turn, the Treaty''s Review Conference this October comes at a critical juncture in Euro-Atlantic security, directly preceding when the US withdrawal will take effect.

Ahead of the Review Conference, this new ELN policy brief by Dr Alexander Graef assesses the current technical challenges and compliance issues facing the Treaty and proposes six key recommendations to save the Open Skies Treaty after the US withdrawal comes into force in November.

Read the report
 

More on the Open Skies Treaty...

In May, the ELN issued a group statement, signed by 16 former high ranking military and defence figures from across Europe, urging all parties to remain in the agreement.

Following the announcement that the US will pull out of the Open Skies Treaty, this ELN brief has live updates, including European and Russian reactions to the news.

In an ELN commentary in November, ELN Research Director Andreas Persbo argues that US withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty would weaken US security.

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

Today marks the 75th anniversary of the first nuclear test explosion, Trinity, carried out by the United States on 16 July 1945. Atmospheric nuclear testing has had a global aggregate yield of approximately 428 megatons - the equivalent of around 29,600 Hiroshima-sized detonations. 

ELN Policy Fellow Sahil Shah published his reflections today on the Trinity anniversary at Inkstick Media: "Nuclear Testing is a Nightmare that Still Plagues Us All Today"

In addition, ELN members and colleagues have been reflecting on the era of nuclear testing and writing on developments related to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which still awaits entry-into-force and full universalization.

ELN Chair and Co-Founder Des Browne and senior network members Hans Blix, Angela Kane, and Ahmet ?z?mc? signed a statement with their CTBTO Group of Eminent Persons (GEM) counterparts in reaction to media reports that senior officials in the United States discussed the possibility of conducting a demonstration nuclear test explosion.

ELN Research Director Andreas Persbo wrote about US accusations of Russian and Chinese low-yield nuclear testing at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: "Will the Trump administration's accusations doom the nuclear test ban treaty?"

Edward Ifft of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University explained the fundamental legal obligations under the CTBT for the ELN: "An assessment of obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban-Treaty (CTBT)"

ELN Policy Fellow Maximilian Hoell published an ELN policy brief: "The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty is in danger: Here's how to save it"

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

• The crisis in Belarus: ELN Policy Fellow Ben Challis warns that there is an urgent need to avoid a dangerous competition for influence in Belarus between Russia and the West and Katia Gold calls on the EU, the UK and the US to come out in support of fundamental freedoms and human rights in the country.
• Addressing security issues in the Caucuses: ELN Research Director Andreas Persbo argues that now is the time to firm up international presence in Nagorno-Karabakh, Hovhannes Nikoghosyan offers his views on what is happening on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Tinatin Japaridze looks at why a robust cybersecurity strategy for Georgia is overdue.
• A forward look to the implications of a Biden Presidency from Nikita Gryazin and Daniel Shapiro, and recommendations for the EUs Eastern Partnership policy by Ben Challis.
• ELN policy fellows Katarzyna Kubiak and Maximilian Hoell discuss current debates around NATO nuclear weapons sharing.

Dear Colleague,

New report: The P5 Process: Opportunities for Success in the NPT Review Conference

Over the past ten months, the ELN and King's College London (KCL) conducted a project to investigate the challenges and opportunities for the P5 process. It was successful in encouraging further transparency within the P5 process among the P5 states and to the wider NPT community, including through leading a civil society event as part of the official P5 meeting in London in February 2020.

The project constructed and promoted realistic and politically feasible recommendations distilled from discussions with nuclear experts and government officials. This joint report offers these practical recommendations for the P5 in advance of the NPT's quintennial Review Conference (RevCon).

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

Today, the ELN publishes a policy brief on the importance of European medical exports during COVID-19. It follows the high-level transatlantic statement, organised by the ELN and The Iran Project, on the impact of US sanctions on the Iranian healthcare system. Here we bring these together with the ELN's other recent work on Iran.

Policy brief: European supply chains are global lifelines: Why Europe must maintain medical exports during the COVID-19 pandemic

The EU is the world's largest exporter of medical supplies, and low and middle-income countries are highly dependent on European supply chains. As countries around the world look to Europe to maintain their supplies of lifesaving equipment during the pandemic, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj argues that Europe must preserve and strengthen its role as a healthcare superpower.
 

Read the report

ELN in the media: Group statement in The Guardian and The Washington Post

On Monday, the ELN and our partners The Iran Project issued a joint statement signed by a bipartisan group of 24 American and European national security leaders urging the US government to ease humanitarian trade with Iran in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. The statement received coverage in international media, including The Guardian and The Washington Post.
 

Read the statement
 

Dear Colleagues,

The ELN is committed to improving diversity among our staff, our Executive Board and our networks to ensure that the best and the brightest are represented regardless of race, gender, age or socio-economic background.

Last week, the staff of the ELN issued a statement of solidarity in response to the Black Lives Matter movement. Through honest conversations, we have begun to identify areas where we need to improve racial diversity and will be introducing measures to help us reach this goal. I was also proud to be one of 150 signatories to the Women of Color Advancing Peace & Security (WCAPS) statement on increasing diversity in the national security field.

Last year, the ELN signed up to the Gender Champions in Nuclear Policy Initiative (GCNP) as part of our commitment to break down gender barriers. We have made progress, but our work is not done. You can view the progress we have made on our GCNP commitments here.

In May, ELN chairman Lord Des Browne joined Senior Network member and founder of Women Political Leaders, Silvana Koch-Mehrin to discuss women in leadership, and how to better support women operating in the field. You can watch the full interview on our YouTube channel.

Dear Colleague,

Every five years, 190 member states of the Treaty on the Non Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) meet to assess how the treaty is working. The next Review Conference was due to begin this week in New York. As with most events, it has been postponed because of COVID-19. While nations grapple with the global pandemic, stopping the spread and use of nuclear weapons remains a vital global security issue.

This week, we feature articles by ELN staff and prominent nuclear experts who explore issues relating to the NPT Review Conference and global nuclear order.

Mapping the fault lines for the 2020 NPT Review Conference 
Edward Ifft, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Stanford University
There have been recent stresses to the NPT regime and fault lines have emerged. In light of this, what should we expect from the next Review Conference?

CEND and a changing global nuclear order
Heather Williams, ELN Senior Associate Fellow
Current institutions underpinning the global nuclear order are not fit for purpose at present. Could CEND - a new forum for generating fresh ideas on nuclear disarmament - help address this?

The NPT at its Golden Anniversary Review 
Andreas Persbo, ELN Research Director and Sahil Shah, ELN Policy Fellow
What challenges are likely to be faced at the upcoming Review Conference? ELN''s Research Director and Policy Fellow reflect on December's Wilton Park Conference on nuclear non-proliferation.

IPNDV in the context of the upcoming NPT RevCon
Alex Bednarek, Program Officer at the NTI
Thorough and effective verification measures are critical to the success of nuclear disarmament. The IPNDV - an initiative of more than 25 countries - is working to address this.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

Last Friday, North Macedonia officially joined NATO, becoming the alliance''s 30th member. Earlier that week, the EU gave its approval for membership talks to begin with North Macedonia and Albania. To mark these events, our weekend reading list brings together ELN commentaries on NATO and the EU, from network members and experts.

Does lighter mean healthier? Risks of modern deterrence in the Russia-NATO context
YGLN member Igor Istomin looks at the growing reliance on high-readiness agile forces by both Russian and Western militaries, arguing that more thought needs to be given to their potential risks.
 
NATO and emerging technologies
The current explosion in emerging technologies offers opportunities, as well as potential perils for NATO, finds Dr Margaret E. Kosal, Associate at Georgia Institute of Technology.

It's not you, it's me: EU's break up with the Western Balkans
YGLN member Gent Salihu explores the EU's relationship with the Western Balkans in the context of its enlargement policy.

Rapprochement between the EU and the EAEU offers more than economic benefits
Ulf Schneider, founder and President of Schneider Group, argues that the vision of a common economic space, from Lisbon to Vladivostok, can and should become reality.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

Dear Colleague,

75 years ago today, the atomic bomb was dropped on the Japanese city of Hiroshima, killing tens of thousands of people and signalling a drastic and terrifying escalation of the horrors of war. Today, the risk of nuclear weapons use remains as high as ever and global efforts to reduce the role of nuclear weapons are under increasing pressure.

Statement by the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group on reducing nuclear risks
This week, members of the ELN signed a statement from the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG), an independent consortium across 18 states in the region, calling for leaders of nuclear weapons states to reinforce the principle that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. The statement also urged the US and Russia to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) which is due to expire in six months if it is not extended.

Hiroshima: 75 years on and the start of the atomic age
The ELN's Research Director Andreas Persbo reflects on the bombing of Hiroshima that took place 75 years ago today. The era of "atomic peace" that followed, he argues, has been fraught with increasingly catastrophic risks.

An assessment of obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban-Treaty (CTBT)
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) - the treaty banning all nuclear tests - was put under the spotlight in June when the US Government's 2020 Compliance Report raised accusations about Russian and Chinese nuclear testing. Edward Ifft, Distinguished Visiting Fellow of the Hoover Institution, argues that the report forces into the open issues that have been simmering under the surface for a long time.

Lessons of NPT's extension for the next Review Conference
25 years since the indefinite extension of The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Michal Onderco, looks at how the story of the extension - that creative diplomacy can overcome many old divisions - provides hope for the next Review Conference. In 2020, as long as diplomats in New York look for constructive partners across the aisle to build coalitions, the conference is not destined for failure.

The Global Enterprise: a roadmap to achieving success at the 2021 NPT Review Conference
The NPT remains the foundation for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons but it's facing tough challenges today. In an ELN commentary, NTI's Isabelle Williams discusses the role of the Global Enterprise initiative, set up to encourage practical steps and commitments that demonstrate the ability of States to work together to advance the NPT's nuclear disarmament goals, and what steps can be taken before the next RevCon.

Best wishes,

Adam

Sir Adam Thomson KCMG
Director
European Leadership Network (ELN)

The ELN: The 2020 developments that will shape the year to come